Madison, Wisconsin —
China’s latest population data has delivered another stark reminder of the scale of its demographic challenge. The country recorded just 7.92 million births in 2025, down sharply from 9.54 million the year before. That figure is not only far below recent expectations, but also barely more than half of the 14 million-plus births officials once projected would follow the end of the one-child policy in 2016.
To put the decline in historical perspective, China is now seeing birth numbers comparable to those recorded in the late 18th century — a time when its total population was only a fraction of today’s. This dramatic reversal underscores how deeply entrenched the country’s fertility collapse has become.
Policy Shifts, Limited Impact
After years of downplaying the problem, Chinese authorities have begun to confront the reality of sustained population decline. In 2024, Beijing rolled out a range of pro-natalist measures, including financial incentives, expanded childcare support and more family-friendly workplace policies. The hope was that these initiatives would stabilize, or even reverse, falling birth rates.
Yet the structural forces driving China’s demographic downturn make a quick rebound unlikely. Fertility decline, once set in motion, tends to gather momentum. Even strong policy intervention can slow the descent, but reversing it is a far more difficult task — particularly in a society undergoing rapid economic and social transformation.
Fewer Marriages, Fewer Mothers
One of the most significant obstacles is the steady fall in marriage rates. In China, marriage remains closely tied to childbearing, meaning fewer marriages almost inevitably translate into fewer births. Reversing this trend will be especially difficult because the size of the key childbearing population is shrinking rapidly.
Women between the ages of 20 and 34 account for roughly 85 percent of all births in China. That group is projected to shrink from about 105 million in 2025 to just 58 million by mid-century. Even if fertility rates per woman were to rise modestly, the sheer decline in the number of potential mothers places a hard ceiling on future birth totals.
A Distorted Marriage Market
China’s demographic troubles are compounded by deep imbalances in its marriage market. Decades of sex-selective practices have left the country with a surplus of men, particularly in younger generations. This imbalance has made it increasingly difficult for many men to find partners, especially in rural and less-developed regions.
At the same time, women’s educational attainment has risen dramatically. In recent years, female students have come to dominate university campuses, reversing earlier gender patterns. While this shift represents social progress, it has also reshaped marriage preferences. Many highly educated women seek partners with similar or higher levels of education, a dynamic that leaves a growing number of both men and women unmatched.
The contrast is striking: while boys once significantly outnumbered girls in early childhood, women now vastly outnumber men in higher education. This mismatch reduces the likelihood of marriage for both genders, further depressing fertility.
Beyond Birth Incentives
These overlapping challenges suggest that financial bonuses and parental benefits alone will not be enough to restore population growth. China’s fertility decline reflects deeper changes in values, expectations and economic realities. Rising housing costs, intense work pressures and concerns about career disruption all discourage young people from marrying and having children.
If China hopes to soften the long-term impact of population decline, it may need to look beyond short-term birth incentives. Policies that address work-life balance, gender equality, housing affordability and elder care could play a larger role in shaping family decisions. Even then, success would likely mean slowing the pace of decline rather than returning to past growth levels.
China’s demographic trajectory is not unique — many developed and middle-income countries face similar challenges. What sets China apart is the speed and scale of its transition. Whether the country can adapt its economic and social systems to this new reality may matter far more than whether it can restore birth rates to their former highs.