North Korea is not expected to cooperate with South Korea’s proposal for a joint investigation into an alleged drone intrusion, according to analysts, dampening hopes that the incident could reopen stalled inter-Korean dialogue.
Pyongyang has accused South Korea of sending drones into its airspace on two occasions — once last September and again in early January — allegations Seoul’s military has denied. Despite the dispute, South Korean authorities say they are moving ahead with efforts to clarify the facts and prevent further escalation.
This week, South Korea’s police and military formed a joint investigative team of about 30 members to examine whether the drone may have been launched by civilians. The move followed a directive from President Lee Jae Myung, who warned that unauthorized drone flights pose serious national security risks.
Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back has floated the idea of a joint inter-Korean investigation under the framework of the United Nations Command, though officials stress that no formal proposal has yet been delivered to Pyongyang. The Defense Ministry said next steps will depend on the outcome of the ongoing domestic probe.
Some lawmakers and former intelligence officials have urged Seoul to pursue a joint inquiry, arguing that cooperation could help clarify conflicting claims and reduce tensions. Questions have also been raised over inconsistencies between North Korea’s assertions and the evidence it has released.
Experts, however, remain skeptical. Analysts note that Pyongyang has shown little interest in engaging Seoul on security matters since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared the South a hostile state in late 2023. Since then, North Korea has largely ignored South Korea’s overtures for talks, including recent requests for military dialogue.
With communication channels silent and trust at a low point, observers say the drone incident is more likely to be used by Pyongyang to reinforce its hardline stance than to open the door to cooperation.